OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-13

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Tuesday 13 October 2026, 10:00 UTC · scheduled

Alexander Zverev 1.80 10:00 1.20 Alexander Bublik

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	65.7%	73%	-7.3%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	56.9%	43.1%
logistic	69.7%	30.3%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Alexander Zverev	Alexander Bublik
Elo (pre-match)	2164	1918
Surface Elo	2164	1918
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.20
Form trend	-0.30	-0.90
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	1 W	3 W · 0 D

Alexander Zverev: last 5

13 Oct	A	Alexander Bublik	2 - 1	W
11 Oct	H	Quentin Halys	2 - 1	W
11 Oct	H	Quentin Halys	2 - 1	W
09 Oct	H	Yibing Wu	2 - 0	W
09 Oct	H	Yibing Wu	2 - 0	W

Alexander Bublik: last 5

13 Oct	H	Alexander Zverev	1 - 2	L
11 Oct	H	Brandon Nakashima	2 - 1	W
11 Oct	H	Brandon Nakashima	2 - 1	W
09 Oct	H	Tomas Machac	2 - 0	W
09 Oct	H	Tomas Machac	2 - 0	W

Head to head

13 Oct 2026	Alexander Bublik	1 - 2	Alexander Zverev
19 Jun 2023	Alexander Bublik	2 - 0	Alexander Zverev
10 Apr 2023	Alexander Bublik	1 - 2	Alexander Zverev
31 Jan 2022	Alexander Bublik	2 - 0	Alexander Zverev
01 Mar 2021	Alexander Bublik	2 - 0	Alexander Zverev

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.10	32.3%	13 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.39	71.9%	13 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.10	32.3%	13 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.36	73.5%	13 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.15	31.8%	13 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.38	72.5%	13 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.40	29.4%	13 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.40	71.4%	13 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Alexander Bublik	3.50	28.6%	13 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Alexander Zverev	1.41	70.9%	13 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.11	32.1%	13 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.39	71.9%	13 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.15	31.8%	13 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.37	73.0%	13 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.18	31.4%	13 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.36	73.5%	13 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.30	30.3%	13 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.31	76.3%	13 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.05	32.8%	13 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.38	72.5%	13 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.06	32.7%	13 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.37	73.0%	13 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.45	29.0%	13 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.40	71.4%	13 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Alexander Bublik	3.50	28.6%	13 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Alexander Zverev	1.41	70.9%	13 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.15	31.8%	13 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.37	73.0%	13 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.28	30.5%	13 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.39	71.9%	13 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.90	34.5%	13 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.33	75.2%	13 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	3.20	31.2%	13 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.37	73.0%	13 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.20	31.2%	13 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.30	76.9%	13 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.30	30.3%	13 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.33	75.2%	13 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.05	32.8%	13 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.38	72.5%	13 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.05	32.8%	13 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.38	72.5%	13 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.10	32.3%	13 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.36	73.5%	13 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.25	30.8%	13 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.38	72.5%	13 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	3.10	32.3%	13 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.36	73.5%	13 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC