| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.1% | 45% | +8.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| logistic | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Murkel Dellien | Juan Estevez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1476 | 1425 |
| Surface Elo | 1476 | 1425 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Juan Estevez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Murkel Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Francisco Comesana | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Francisco Comesana | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Federico Iannaccone | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Benito Sanchez Martinez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Juan Estevez | 0 - 2 | Murkel Dellien |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.72 | 58.1% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 05 Oct 06:15 |