OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-10

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Saturday 10 October 2026, 08:30 UTC · scheduled

Luciano Darderi 1.80 08:30 2.40 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	62.4%	70%	-8.0%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	24.2%	75.7%
logistic	45.9%	54.1%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Luciano Darderi	Stefanos Tsitsipas
Elo (pre-match)	1874	1919
Surface Elo	1874	1919
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	2.40
Form trend	0.60	0.00
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	8	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	1 W · 0 D

Luciano Darderi: last 5

10 Oct	H	Stefanos Tsitsipas	0 - 2	L
02 Oct	A	Kyrian Jacquet	0 - 2	L
02 Oct	A	Kyrian Jacquet	0 - 2	L
01 Oct	H	Casper Ruud	2 - 0	W
01 Oct	A	Casper Ruud	2 - 0	W

Stefanos Tsitsipas: last 5

10 Oct	A	Luciano Darderi	2 - 0	W
08 Oct	A	Kimmer Coppejans	2 - 0	W
08 Oct	A	Kimmer Coppejans	2 - 0	W
02 Oct	H	Valentin Vacherot	1 - 2	L
01 Oct	H	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2 - 1	W

Head to head

10 Oct 2026	Luciano Darderi	0 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas
16 Jun 2025	Luciano Darderi	1 - 2	Stefanos Tsitsipas

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.96	33.8%	10 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.42	70.4%	10 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.90	34.5%	10 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.40	71.4%	10 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Luciano Darderi	3.00	33.3%	10 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.42	70.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Luciano Darderi	3.15	31.8%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.46	68.5%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Luciano Darderi	3.20	31.2%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.47	68.0%	10 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.93	34.1%	10 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.42	70.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.95	33.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.41	70.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.93	34.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.41	70.9%	10 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Luciano Darderi	3.00	33.3%	10 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.39	71.9%	10 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.95	33.9%	10 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.40	71.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Luciano Darderi	3.15	31.8%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.46	68.5%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Luciano Darderi	3.20	31.2%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.47	68.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.95	33.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.41	70.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Luciano Darderi	3.03	33.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.43	69.9%	10 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.80	35.7%	10 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.35	74.1%	10 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.42	70.4%	10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	3.00	33.3%	10 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.95	33.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.35	74.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.80	35.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.37	73.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.95	33.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.40	71.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.95	33.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.40	71.4%	10 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.90	34.5%	10 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.40	71.4%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	3.05	32.8%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.41	70.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Luciano Darderi	2.95	33.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1.40	71.4%	10 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 18:18 UTC