| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.9% | 45% | +1.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.5% | 81% | -6.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.5% | 62% | -1.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 64% | +2.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.8% | 29.7% | 32.5% |
| xgboost | 43.0% | 27.0% | 29.9% |
| logistic | 42.2% | 27.8% | 30.1% |
| Pisa | Ascoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1449 | 1462 |
| Surface Elo | 1449 | 1462 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 3.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 4 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | A | L.R. Vicenza | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Vicenza | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Napoli | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Monaco | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Mantova | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Sudtirol | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Pescara | 2 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sudtirol | 0 - 0 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | SC Trestina | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Avellino | 3 - 1 | W |
| 10 May 2024 | Ascoli | 2 - 1 | Pisa |
| 23 Dec 2023 | Pisa | 1 - 0 | Ascoli |
| 01 May 2023 | Ascoli | 2 - 1 | Pisa |
| 08 Dec 2022 | Pisa | 2 - 0 | Ascoli |
| 16 Mar 2022 | Ascoli | 2 - 0 | Pisa |
| 01 Nov 2021 | Pisa | 1 - 1 | Ascoli |
| 02 Mar 2021 | Ascoli | 0 - 2 | Pisa |
| 08 Dec 2020 | Pisa | 2 - 1 | Ascoli |
| 27 Jul 2020 | Pisa | 1 - 0 | Ascoli |
| 26 Dec 2019 | Ascoli | 1 - 0 | Pisa |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |