| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.0% | 49% | -4.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 77% | -3.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 57.2% | 67% | -9.4% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.0% | 50% | +2.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.3% | 26.6% | 32.2% |
| xgboost | 40.5% | 29.0% | 30.5% |
| logistic | 37.8% | 29.8% | 32.4% |
| Aberdeen | Falkirk | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1578 | 1652 |
| Surface Elo | 1578 | 1652 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Dundee United | 2 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Dundee United | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | St Mirren | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | St Mirren | 3 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Elgin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Kilmarnock | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Kilmarnock | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Hibernian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Hibernian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Dundee | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Aberdeen | 1 - 1 | Falkirk |
| 03 Jan 2026 | Falkirk | 1 - 0 | Aberdeen |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Aberdeen | 0 - 1 | Falkirk |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.10 | 24.4% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.81 | 55.2% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 28 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.49 | 28.6% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.58 | 27.9% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.11 | 47.4% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.83 | 54.6% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 28 Oct 06:15 |