| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 75.3% | 91% | -15.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 77.6% | 22.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| logistic | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| Jenson Brooksby | Patrick Maloney | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1777 | 1498 |
| Surface Elo | 1777 | 1498 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Timo Legout | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Mitchell Krueger | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Darwin Blanch | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Gabriel Debru | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Patrick Maloney | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Kenta Miyoshi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Kenta Miyoshi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Jenson Brooksby | 2 - 0 | Patrick Maloney |
| 14 Apr 2025 | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | Patrick Maloney |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.10 | 16.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.10 | 90.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |