| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.3% | 45% | +12.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 81.8% | 77% | +5.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 75.5% | 63% | +12.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.7% | 51% | +21.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 67.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 18.6% | 23.1% | 58.3% |
| xgboost | 26.7% | 25.3% | 48.0% |
| logistic | 11.7% | 15.0% | 73.3% |
| Chaves | Sp Braga | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1401 | 1639 |
| Surface Elo | 1401 | 1639 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 889 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 6 W · 1 D |
| 23 Oct | H | Vizela | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Os Marialvas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Brito SC | 4 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Lusitania FC Lourosa | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Oct | A | Farense | 0 - 4 | L |
| 22 Oct | H | Gent | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Gil Vicente | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Copenhagen | 0 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | FC Tirsense | 3 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Sp Lisbon | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Sp Braga | 1 - 1 | Chaves |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Chaves | 2 - 4 | Sp Braga |
| 02 Apr 2023 | Chaves | 1 - 2 | Sp Braga |
| 09 Oct 2022 | Sp Braga | 0 - 1 | Chaves |
| 10 Feb 2019 | Sp Braga | 2 - 1 | Chaves |
| 31 Aug 2018 | Chaves | 0 - 1 | Sp Braga |
| 18 Mar 2018 | Chaves | 1 - 4 | Sp Braga |
| 29 Oct 2017 | Sp Braga | 1 - 0 | Chaves |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.00 | 33.3% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.97 | 50.8% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.72 | 58.1% | 25 Oct 06:15 |