| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.3% | 52% | +5.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.7% | 42.2% |
| xgboost | 64.6% | 33.9% |
| logistic | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| Vegas Golden Knights | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1635 | 1591 |
| Surface Elo | 1635 | 1591 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.80 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 4.20 | 3.13 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.40 | 2.63 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | H | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6 - 2 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Calgary Flames | 6 - 2 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Nashville Predators | 5 - 2 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Minnesota Wild | 2 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Los Angeles Kings | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Vancouver Canucks | 4 - 2 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Seattle Kraken | 4 - 3 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | New York Rangers | 1 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | New York Islanders | 5 - 3 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Minnesota Wild | 3 - 2 | W |
| 07 Nov 2025 | Vegas Golden Knights | 3 - 6 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 2 - 1 | Vegas Golden Knights |
| 24 Mar 2025 | Vegas Golden Knights | 4 - 2 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 17 Oct 2024 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 4 - 3 | Vegas Golden Knights |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.94 | 51.5% | 21 Oct 02:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.96 | 51.0% | 21 Oct 02:20 |