| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.0% | 88% | -16.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 87.0% | 13.0% |
| logistic | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Max Houkes | Alec Beckley | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1633 | 1495 |
| Surface Elo | 1633 | 1495 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.83 | 1.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Manuel Plunger | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Rodrigo Alujas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Benjamin Lock | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | H | Alec Beckley | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Allan Gatoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Yshai Oliel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Axel Nefve | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Max Houkes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Niklas Grunewald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Axel Nefve | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct 2026 | Max Houkes | 2 - 1 | Alec Beckley |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.14 | 87.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |