| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.5% | 57% | -8.8% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.0% | 83% | -6.6% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.8% | 76% | -10.8% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 46% | +8.6% | |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.2% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.1% | 28.6% | 25.3% |
| xgboost | 45.3% | 27.6% | 27.1% |
| logistic | 47.0% | 27.9% | 25.2% |
| Leicester | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1497 | 1531 |
| Surface Elo | 1497 | 1531 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 3 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Wigan | 3 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Wigan | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Luton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Luton | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Bromley | 4 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Milton Keynes Dons | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Milton Keynes Dons | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Plymouth | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Plymouth | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Bradford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct 2026 | Stevenage | 2 - 1 | Leicester |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.73 | 57.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.66 | 60.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 30 Oct 06:15 |