OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-25
🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Sunday 25 October 2026, 16:15 UTC · finished
Marseille 1.20 4 - 3 0.20 Le Havre
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 61.0%64%-2.8%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 85.9%85%+0.6%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 80.9%80%+0.5%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 57.1%66%-8.5%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.1%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson65.7%20.3%14.0%
xgboost62.5%23.8%13.7%
logistic62.3%22.5%15.2%
Inputs the models saw
MarseilleLe Havre
Elo (pre-match)17031532
Surface Elo17031532
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.200.20
Form trend-0.900.10
Season points per game1.290.29
Season goals for / game2.000.71
Season goals against / game1.431.57
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W0 W · 0 D
Marseille: last 5
22 OctASturm Graz0 - 1L
18 OctAAngers5 - 2W
18 OctAAngers5 - 2W
15 OctHOlympiacos0 - 1L
11 OctATroyes2 - 0W
Le Havre: last 5
18 OctHAuxerre1 - 3L
18 OctHAuxerre1 - 3L
10 OctALille0 - 1L
10 OctALille0 - 1L
19 SepAToulouse2 - 3L
Head to head
10 May 2026Le Havre0 - 1Marseille
18 Oct 2025Marseille6 - 2Le Havre
10 May 2025Le Havre1 - 3Marseille
05 Jan 2025Marseille5 - 1Le Havre
19 May 2024Le Havre1 - 2Marseille
08 Oct 2023Marseille3 - 0Le Havre
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away6.0016.7%25 Oct 16:15
Bet3651X2draw5.0020.0%25 Oct 16:15
Bet3651X2home1.4469.4%25 Oct 16:15
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.4469.4%25 Oct 16:15
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.7536.4%25 Oct 16:15
SportyBet1X2away5.9816.7%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw5.0120.0%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.5365.4%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5066.7%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.6537.7%25 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:54 UTC