| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 75.2% | 83% | -7.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 74.3% | 25.6% |
| logistic | 68.5% | 31.5% |
| Roman Safiullin | Ilya Ivashka | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1871 | 1665 |
| Surface Elo | 1871 | 1665 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.29 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Francisco Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Francisco Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Rinky Hijikata | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Rinky Hijikata | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Andrey Rublev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Liam Draxl | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Liam Draxl | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Marat Sharipov | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Beibit Zhukayev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Sharipov, Marat | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Mar 2023 | Ilya Ivashka | 2 - 0 | Roman Safiullin |
| 08 Feb 2021 | Ilya Ivashka | 0 - 3 | Roman Safiullin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.65 | 21.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.21 | 82.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |