OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-25
⚽ Germany Bundesliga · Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:30 UTC · finished
Hoffenheim 1.20 3 - 0 2.60 Bayer Leverkusen
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 46.4%42%+4.5%✗ miss
DCHome or away 76.8%78%-1.0%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 58.8%55%+3.5%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 68.5%72%-3.5%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 67.6%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson28.5%21.6%49.8%
xgboost34.6%26.3%39.1%
logistic32.6%26.8%40.6%
Inputs the models saw
HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen
Elo (pre-match)16241757
Surface Elo16241757
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.202.60
Form trend-0.30-0.20
Season points per game1.503.00
Season goals for / game2.003.00
Season goals against / game2.002.00
Rest days67
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W6 W · 1 D
Hoffenheim: last 5
22 OctHLyon3 - 0W
18 OctABorussia M´gladbach2 - 1W
18 OctABorussia Mönchengladbach2 - 1W
18 OctHSC Verl2 - 1W
15 OctHBesiktas2 - 3L
Bayer Leverkusen: last 5
22 OctAOFI Crete2 - 0W
18 OctHFreiburg2 - 1W
18 OctHFreiburg2 - 1W
15 OctAKKS Lech Poznan4 - 0W
10 OctAMainz4 - 3W
Head to head
17 Jan 2026Hoffenheim1 - 0Bayer Leverkusen
23 Aug 2025Bayer Leverkusen1 - 2Hoffenheim
02 Feb 2025Bayer Leverkusen3 - 1Hoffenheim
14 Sep 2024Hoffenheim1 - 4Bayer Leverkusen
30 Mar 2024Bayer Leverkusen2 - 1Hoffenheim
04 Nov 2023Hoffenheim2 - 3Bayer Leverkusen
11 Feb 2023Hoffenheim1 - 3Bayer Leverkusen
20 Aug 2022Bayer Leverkusen0 - 3Hoffenheim
07 May 2022Hoffenheim2 - 4Bayer Leverkusen
15 Dec 2021Bayer Leverkusen2 - 2Hoffenheim
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.3941.8%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.9825.1%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.7836.0%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.3971.9%23 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under3.0033.3%23 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:22 UTC