| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 39.6% | 37% | +2.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.0% | 77% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 53.2% | 50% | +3.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 63% | -0.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.5% | 24.9% | 35.5% |
| xgboost | 37.3% | 33.2% | 29.5% |
| logistic | 25.8% | 27.5% | 46.7% |
| Den Haag | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1355 | 1504 |
| Surface Elo | 1355 | 1504 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 4 W · 1 D |
| 01 Nov | A | Zwolle | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Zwolle | 0 - 1 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Excelsior | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Heerenveen | 2 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Heerenveen | 2 - 3 | L |
| 07 Nov | H | Amsterdamsche FC | 5 - 5 | D |
| 01 Nov | A | Groningen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Groningen | 3 - 2 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Fortuna Sittard | 2 - 2 | D |
| 25 Oct | H | Ajax | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Den Haag | 1 - 1 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 22 Nov 2020 | Sparta Rotterdam | 6 - 0 | Den Haag |
| 11 Feb 2020 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 - 2 | Den Haag |
| 17 Aug 2019 | Den Haag | 1 - 2 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 04 Mar 2018 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 - 1 | Den Haag |
| 23 Sep 2017 | Den Haag | 1 - 0 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.73 | 26.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.51 | 39.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.58 | 63.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |