| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 67.3% | 76% | -9.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 23.4% | 76.5% |
| logistic | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| Valentin Vacherot | Rafael Jodar | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1883 | 2076 |
| Surface Elo | 1883 | 2076 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.13 | 1.63 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.13 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 26 Oct | H | Mariano Navone | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Luca Van Assche | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Luca Van Assche | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Tommy Paul | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Tommy Paul | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Alejandro Tabilo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.31 | 76.3% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.65 | 27.4% | 28 Oct 06:15 |