OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-09-27

NFL · Sunday 27 September 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Cleveland Browns – 21 - 18 – Carolina Panthers

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	52.4%	47%	+5.9%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	52.4%	47.6%

Inputs the models saw

	Cleveland Browns	Carolina Panthers
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.02
form diff	0.00
rest diff	0.00
home field	1.00
point diff	-0.46
opponent strength diff	-0.03
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-09-26T17:00:00+00:00

Cleveland Browns: last 5

20 Sep	A	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23 - 19	W
13 Sep	A	Jacksonville Jaguars	10 - 34	L
04 Jan	A	Cincinnati Bengals	20 - 18	W
28 Dec	H	Pittsburgh Steelers	13 - 6	W
21 Dec	H	Buffalo Bills	20 - 23	L

Carolina Panthers: last 5

20 Sep	A	Atlanta Falcons	34 - 3	W
13 Sep	H	Chicago Bears	37 - 59	L
10 Jan	H	Los Angeles Rams	31 - 34	L
03 Jan	A	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14 - 16	L
28 Dec	H	Seattle Seahawks	10 - 27	L

Head to head

11 Sep 2022	Carolina Panthers	24 - 26	Cleveland Browns
09 Dec 2018	Cleveland Browns	26 - 20	Carolina Panthers
21 Dec 2014	Carolina Panthers	17 - 13	Cleveland Browns
28 Nov 2010	Cleveland Browns	24 - 23	Carolina Panthers
08 Oct 2006	Carolina Panthers	20 - 12	Cleveland Browns
01 Dec 2002	Cleveland Browns	6 - 13	Carolina Panthers

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	2.13	46.9%	27 Sep 14:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.80	55.6%	27 Sep 14:20

Generated 2026-10-30 19:27 UTC