| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.6% | 76% | -14.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 66.9% | 33.0% |
| logistic | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Enrico Dalla Valle | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1565 | 1551 |
| Surface Elo | 1565 | 1551 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Jay Clarke | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Sciahbasi, Matteo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Matthew William Donald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Enrico Dalla Valle | 0 - 2 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.32 | 75.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |