| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.2% | 53% | +0.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| logistic | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Daniel Siniakov | Yanaki Milev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1358 | 1501 |
| Surface Elo | 1358 | 1501 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 04 Oct | H | Daniele Rapagnetta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Georgii Kravchenko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Oleksii Krutykh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | Rudolf Molleker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Ivan Gakhov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Oscar Jose Gutierrez | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.89 | 52.9% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.85 | 54.0% | 05 Oct 06:15 |