| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.5% | 44% | +8.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| logistic | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| Fajing Sun | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1532 | 1520 |
| Surface Elo | 1532 | 1520 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.29 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.29 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.29 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | A | Keegan Smith | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Qian Sun | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Keegan Smith | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Qian Sun | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Jie Cui | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Yibing Wu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Yibing Wu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Aleksandar Vukic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Lloyd Harris | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Jake Delaney | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug 2026 | Fajing Sun | 0 - 2 | Hayato Matsuoka |
| 05 Jan 2026 | Fajing Sun | 2 - 1 | Hayato Matsuoka |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.61 | 62.1% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 26 Oct 06:15 |