| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.5% | 40% | +4.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.8% | 51.3% |
| xgboost | 76.5% | 22.6% |
| logistic | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| New York Islanders | Tampa Bay Lightning | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1462 | 1583 |
| Surface Elo | 1462 | 1583 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Chicago Blackhawks | 4 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | New York Rangers | 2 - 5 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | New Jersey Devils | 6 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Apr | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Minnesota Wild | 3 - 2 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Washington Capitals | 3 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | New York Rangers | 1 - 5 | L |
| 03 May | H | Montréal Canadiens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Dec 2025 | New York Islanders | 3 - 2 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 07 Dec 2025 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 0 - 2 | New York Islanders |
| 03 Dec 2025 | New York Islanders | 2 - 1 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 01 Apr 2025 | New York Islanders | 1 - 4 | Tampa Bay Lightning |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 5 - 3 | New York Islanders |
| 02 Feb 2025 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 2 - 3 | New York Islanders |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 10 Oct 20:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 10 Oct 20:20 |