| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.3% | 57% | +7.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| logistic | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| Leylah Fernandez | Jelena Ostapenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1749 | 1634 |
| Surface Elo | 1749 | 1634 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.63 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.88 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 14 Oct | A | Han Shi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jelena Ostapenko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Han Shi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Daria Kasatkina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Sonay Kartal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Diana Shnaider | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Leylah Fernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Jessica Pegula | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | Leylah Fernandez |
| 28 Jun 2021 | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | Leylah Fernandez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 15 Oct 06:15 |