| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.0% | 63% | -10.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.5% | 86% | -6.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.0% | 81% | -10.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 60% | -0.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.2% | 22.2% | 20.6% |
| xgboost | 44.4% | 29.2% | 26.4% |
| logistic | 56.2% | 26.0% | 17.8% |
| Southampton | Portsmouth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1665 | 1514 |
| Surface Elo | 1665 | 1514 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 09 Oct | H | QPR | 5 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Bristol City | 4 - 1 | W |
| 08 Sep | H | Swansea | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Blackburn | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Blackburn | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Charlton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Cardiff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Derby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Jan 2026 | Portsmouth | 1 - 1 | Southampton |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Southampton | 0 - 0 | Portsmouth |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.35 | 18.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.33 | 23.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.58 | 63.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.66 | 60.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |