| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.5% | 71% | -8.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 43.8% | 56.1% |
| logistic | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| Yannick Hanfmann | Frances Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1861 | 2025 |
| Surface Elo | 1861 | 2025 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 07 Oct | H | Kamil Majchrzak | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | Arthur Fils | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Aug | A | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Aug | A | Nuno Borges | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Aug | A | Flavio Cobolli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Paterne Mamata | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Arthur Fils | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Arthur Fils | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Kei Nishikori | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Kei Nishikori | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Jun 2024 | Frances Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | Yannick Hanfmann |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.40 | 71.4% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 08 Oct 06:15 |