| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.4% | 55% | -2.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 53.1% | 46.8% |
| logistic | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Giorgio Tabacco | Andrey Chepelev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1450 | 1447 |
| Surface Elo | 1450 | 1447 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.40 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 2 | 16 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Alvarez Valdes, Luis Carlos | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Murgett, F | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Kravchenko, G | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Echeverria, J | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Sep | H | Agwi, M | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Michiel De Krom | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Max Wiskandt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Max Wiskandt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Max Hans Rehberg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | De Marchi, Andrea | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.83 | 54.6% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.87 | 53.5% | 08 Oct 06:15 |