| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.5% | 68% | -17.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.5% | 87% | -10.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.1% | 85% | -20.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 74% | -21.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.8% | 25.6% | 23.6% |
| xgboost | 44.3% | 23.5% | 32.2% |
| logistic | 36.3% | 26.4% | 37.3% |
| Dorking | Braintree Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1354 | 1301 |
| Surface Elo | 1354 | 1301 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 889 | 154 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Southall FC | 2 - 2 | D |
| 20 Apr | H | Hartlepool | 3 - 4 | L |
| 13 Apr | A | Rochdale | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Apr | A | Wealdstone | 2 - 4 | L |
| 06 Apr | H | Altrincham | 0 - 0 | D |
| 25 Apr | A | Tamworth | 1 - 5 | L |
| 18 Apr | H | Rochdale | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Apr | A | Forest Green | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Apr | H | Woking | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Apr | A | Southend | 2 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.20 | 19.2% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.60 | 21.7% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.33 | 75.2% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.10 | 32.3% | 26 Sep 06:15 |