| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.8% | 35% | +31.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 87.6% | 59% | +28.7% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 84.9% | 45% | +39.5% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 77% | -10.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 66.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 70.5% | 19.5% | 10.1% |
| xgboost | 66.6% | 18.9% | 14.5% |
| logistic | 68.0% | 22.1% | 9.9% |
| AZ Alkmaar | Almere City | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1617 | 1407 |
| Surface Elo | 1617 | 1407 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.50 | 1.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.75 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 537 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 05 Nov | H | Juventus | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Ajax | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Ajax | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Oct | A | Roda JC Kerkrade | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Oct | H | Twente | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Oct | A | Waalwijk | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Telstar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Amsterdamsche FC | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Roda JC Kerkrade | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | FC Emmen | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 May 2025 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 - 1 | Almere City |
| 10 Aug 2024 | Almere City | 0 - 1 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 10 Feb 2024 | Almere City | 0 - 0 | AZ Alkmaar |
| 09 Dec 2023 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 - 1 | Almere City |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.31 | 76.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.40 | 29.4% | 06 Nov 06:15 |