| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.3% | 51% | +0.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.7% | 51.2% |
| logistic | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Maks Kasnikowski | Damir Dzumhur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1614 | 1655 |
| Surface Elo | 1614 | 1655 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | H | Stefano Travaglia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Cezar Cretu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Stefano Travaglia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Tom Gentzsch | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Dimitar Kuzmanov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Aziz Dougaz | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Jacob Fearnley | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Damir Dzumhur | 2 - 0 | Maks Kasnikowski |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.77 | 56.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.98 | 50.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |