| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win selected | 70.6% | 65% | +5.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 18.7% | 81.2% |
| logistic | 36.1% | 63.9% |
| Juan Pablo Ficovich | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1457 | 1614 |
| Surface Elo | 1457 | 1614 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | A | Juan Bautista Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Juan Bautista Torres | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Francesco Maestrelli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Pol Martin Tiffon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Garay, Valentin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Facundo Mena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Juan Pablo Ficovich | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | Juan Pablo Ficovich |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.54 | 64.9% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 24 Sep 06:15 |