| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.4% | 52% | +9.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 64.8% | 35.1% |
| logistic | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Petr Nesterov | Marko Topo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1556 | 1522 |
| Surface Elo | 1556 | 1522 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Goncalo Marques | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Yanaki Milev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Gabriele Piraino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Daniel Elahi Galan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Valerio Aboian | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Miguel Damas | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.81 | 55.2% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.93 | 51.8% | 28 Sep 06:15 |