| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 87.1% | 98% | -10.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 13.4% | 86.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 15.2% | 84.7% |
| logistic | 11.6% | 88.4% |
| Renata Zarazua | Aryna Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1446 | 2020 |
| Surface Elo | 1446 | 2020 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 33 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Anna Bondar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Aryna Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Anna Bondar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Anna Bondar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Anna Bondar | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Renata Zarazua | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Elena Rybakina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Jessica Pegula | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Linda Noskova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Renata Zarazua |
| 30 Dec 2024 | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Renata Zarazua |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.02 | 98.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 16.00 | 6.2% | 02 Oct 06:15 |