| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.2% | 72% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 73.6% | 26.3% |
| logistic | 61.8% | 38.2% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Clara Burel | Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1610 | 1546 |
| Surface Elo | 1610 | 1546 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.17 | 0.56 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | A | Lollia, Mathilde | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Lina Gjorcheska | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Alicia Herrero Linana | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Steur, Joelle Lilly Sophie | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Gina Feistel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Julia Grabher | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Jessica Pieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Rebeka Masarova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Lombardini, Marta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Clara Burel | 2 - 0 | Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.39 | 71.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |