| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 55.6% | 57% | -1.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 41.8% | 58.2% |
| logistic | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Gianmarco Ferrari | De Marchi, Andrea | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1486 | 1575 |
| Surface Elo | 1486 | 1575 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.45 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.73 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.64 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Nov | H | Bertimon, M | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Jacopo Berrettini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Filippo Moroni | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Eric Vanshelboim | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Seghetti, S | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Gabriele Crivellaro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Marcello Serafini | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Primucci, Leonardo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Alvarez Valdes, Luis Carlos | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Oct | A | Branko Djuric | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.74 | 57.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.98 | 50.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |