OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ League Two · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Swindon 0.20 1 - 1 1.40 Walsall
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 44.7%37%+7.3%✗ miss
DCHome or away 75.1%79%-3.5%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 55.8%51%+5.0%void
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 56.9%47%+10.4%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 52.6%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson42.4%25.4%32.1%
xgboost35.1%26.5%38.4%
logistic33.7%30.2%36.2%
Inputs the models saw
SwindonWalsall
Elo (pre-match)14191446
Surface Elo14191446
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.201.40
Form trend0.000.00
Season points per game1.101.67
Season goals for / game0.901.33
Season goals against / game1.400.67
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W4 W · 1 D
Swindon: last 5
10 OctHCrewe0 - 1L
10 OctHCrewe0 - 1L
03 OctARochdale0 - 1L
03 OctARochdale0 - 1L
26 SepHAccrington1 - 1D
Walsall: last 5
13 OctHFulham3 - 2W
10 OctAFleetwood Town1 - 1D
10 OctAFleetwood Town1 - 1D
26 SepATranmere1 - 1D
26 SepATranmere1 - 1D
Head to head
06 Apr 2026Swindon2 - 1Walsall
02 Aug 2025Walsall2 - 1Swindon
01 Mar 2025Walsall0 - 1Swindon
17 Aug 2024Swindon0 - 4Walsall
16 Apr 2024Walsall2 - 1Swindon
16 Sep 2023Swindon2 - 0Walsall
14 Mar 2023Walsall0 - 0Swindon
26 Dec 2022Swindon1 - 2Walsall
07 May 2022Walsall0 - 3Swindon
22 Feb 2022Swindon5 - 0Walsall
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.4041.7%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.4029.4%17 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home2.6537.7%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.7557.1%17 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.0548.8%17 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away2.4540.8%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.6027.8%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.7037.0%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6859.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1546.5%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC