| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.7% | 74% | -14.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 57.4% | 42.5% |
| logistic | 58.6% | 41.4% |
| Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | Valerio Aboian | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1657 | 1561 |
| Surface Elo | 1657 | 1561 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Alex Barrena | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | H | Pedro Martinez | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Pedro Martinez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 0 | Valerio Aboian |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 24 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.34 | 74.6% | 24 Sep 06:15 |