| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.8% | 63% | -5.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.8% | 85% | -1.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 76.7% | 79% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.9% | 71% | -10.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.5% | 21.5% | 21.0% |
| xgboost | 68.2% | 17.8% | 14.0% |
| logistic | 58.9% | 24.2% | 16.9% |
| Hertha Berlin | Greuther Furth | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1546 | 1408 |
| Surface Elo | 1546 | 1408 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 21 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Augsburg | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Dresden | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Dresden | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Osnabruck | 3 - 1 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Magdeburg | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Stuttgart | 0 - 5 | L |
| 18 Sep | H | Magdeburg | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Bochum | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | H | Heidenheim | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Cottbus | 4 - 3 | W |
| 10 May 2026 | Hertha Berlin | 2 - 1 | Greuther Furth |
| 12 Dec 2025 | Greuther Furth | 3 - 3 | Hertha Berlin |
| 04 May 2025 | Hertha Berlin | 1 - 0 | Greuther Furth |
| 07 Dec 2024 | Greuther Furth | 2 - 1 | Hertha Berlin |
| 11 Feb 2024 | Greuther Furth | 1 - 2 | Hertha Berlin |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Hertha Berlin | 5 - 0 | Greuther Furth |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Greuther Furth | 2 - 1 | Hertha Berlin |
| 17 Sep 2021 | Hertha Berlin | 2 - 1 | Greuther Furth |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.60 | 21.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |