| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.9% | 85% | -23.6% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.0% | 52.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 11.6% | 88.4% |
| logistic | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| Franco Ribero | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1439 | 1416 |
| Surface Elo | 1439 | 1416 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 62 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Aug | H | Radu Mihai Papoe | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Jun | H | Pavel Kotov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 May | A | Florent Bax | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 May | H | Iiro Vasa | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 May | H | Matyas Cerny | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Wilson Leite | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Milani, Bruno | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.17 | 85.5% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.60 | 21.7% | 04 Oct 06:15 |