OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-18
⚽ Eredivisie · Sunday 18 October 2026, 18:00 UTC · finished
Nijmegen 0.60 2 - 2 2.00 For Sittard
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 56.6%62%-5.1%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 83.0%85%-1.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 76.3%79%-2.9%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 60.3%71%-11.1%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 59.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson58.9%22.0%19.1%
xgboost55.3%25.5%19.2%
logistic62.4%23.4%14.2%
Inputs the models saw
NijmegenFor Sittard
Elo (pre-match)15871530
Surface Elo15871530
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.602.00
Form trend-0.200.40
Season points per game1.131.75
Season goals for / game1.631.75
Season goals against / game1.751.88
Rest days78
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W3 W · 3 D
Nijmegen: last 5
10 OctAAjax1 - 1D
10 OctAAjax1 - 1D
20 SepHGo Ahead Eagles1 - 1D
20 SepHGo Ahead Eagles1 - 1D
12 SepACambuur0 - 3L
For Sittard: last 5
10 OctHTwente1 - 1D
19 SepAWillem II1 - 0W
12 SepHAjax1 - 5L
06 SepADen Haag3 - 2W
28 AugAGroningen3 - 2W
Head to head
28 Feb 2026Nijmegen2 - 3For Sittard
31 Aug 2025For Sittard3 - 2Nijmegen
19 Jan 2025Nijmegen4 - 1For Sittard
31 Aug 2024For Sittard0 - 3Nijmegen
02 Apr 2024For Sittard1 - 1Nijmegen
15 Dec 2023Nijmegen4 - 1For Sittard
28 May 2023For Sittard1 - 1Nijmegen
10 Sep 2022Nijmegen1 - 1For Sittard
15 May 2022Nijmegen0 - 1For Sittard
02 Oct 2021For Sittard1 - 3Nijmegen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away4.5022.2%18 Oct 19:00
Bet3651X2draw3.9025.6%18 Oct 19:00
Bet3651X2home1.7357.8%18 Oct 19:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5365.4%18 Oct 19:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.4041.7%18 Oct 19:00
Generated 2026-10-30 20:31 UTC