| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.6% | 68% | -4.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 37.7% | 62.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 26.4% | 73.5% |
| logistic | 38.4% | 61.6% |
| Thiago Monteiro | Henrique Rocha | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1617 | 1740 |
| Surface Elo | 1617 | 1740 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.83 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Henrique Rocha | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Dali Blanch | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Dali Blanch | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Sumit Nagal | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Henrique Rocha | 2 - 1 | Thiago Monteiro |
| 02 Mar 2026 | Henrique Rocha | 2 - 1 | Thiago Monteiro |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.45 | 69.0% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 21 Oct 06:15 |