OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-14

🎾 ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles · Wednesday 14 October 2026, 05:10 UTC · finished

Casper Ruud 1.20 1 - 0 1.80 Felix Auger Aliassime

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	52.5%	59%	-6.3%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	47.3%	52.7%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	50.9%	49.0%
logistic	47.7%	52.3%

Inputs the models saw

	Casper Ruud	Felix Auger Aliassime
Elo (pre-match)	1944	1978
Surface Elo	1944	1978
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.20	1.80
Form trend	-0.90	-0.30
Season points per game	2.00	2.00
Season goals for / game	1.33	1.33
Season goals against / game	0.67	1.33
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	3 W	4 W · 0 D

Casper Ruud: last 5

14 Oct	H	Felix Auger-Aliassime	1 - 0	W
12 Oct	A	Learner Tien	2 - 0	W
12 Oct	H	Learner Tien	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	A	Bu Yunchaokete	2 - 0	W
10 Oct	H	Yunchaokete Bu	2 - 0	W

Felix Auger Aliassime: last 5

12 Oct	A	Pablo Carreno Busta	2 - 1	W
10 Oct	A	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2 - 1	W
30 Sep	A	Karen Khachanov	0 - 2	L
03 Sep	H	Karen Khachanov	1 - 3	L
31 Aug	H	Rinky Hijikata	3 - 1	W

Head to head

09 Apr 2026	Casper Ruud	0 - 1	Felix Auger Aliassime
12 Aug 2024	Casper Ruud	0 - 2	Felix Auger Aliassime
22 Apr 2024	Casper Ruud	0 - 2	Felix Auger Aliassime
14 Nov 2022	Casper Ruud	2 - 0	Felix Auger Aliassime
08 Aug 2022	Casper Ruud	2 - 0	Felix Auger Aliassime
03 May 2021	Casper Ruud	2 - 0	Felix Auger Aliassime
18 Mar 2019	Casper Ruud	1 - 2	Felix Auger Aliassime

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.70	58.8%	13 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.20	45.5%	13 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 17:08 UTC