| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 74.2% | 80% | -5.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 76.3% | 23.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 78.8% | 21.1% |
| logistic | 75.4% | 24.6% |
| Daniil Medvedev | Nikoloz Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2097 | 1776 |
| Surface Elo | 2097 | 1776 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.63 | 2.70 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.69 | 1.90 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | H | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Alexander Bublik | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Alexander Bublik | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Terence Atmane | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Terence Atmane | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 1 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| 24 Oct 2022 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Nikoloz Basilashvili |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.15 | 24.1% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.25 | 80.0% | 25 Oct 06:15 |