| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.9% | 55% | -3.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 77.4% | 81% | -3.2% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 67.2% | 73% | -6.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 54% | +1.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.5% | 28.4% | 28.0% |
| xgboost | 51.6% | 23.2% | 25.3% |
| logistic | 54.2% | 25.8% | 20.0% |
| Vallecano | Elche | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1654 | 1583 |
| Surface Elo | 1654 | 1583 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 4 W · 1 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Getafe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Oct | A | UD Sanse | 3 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | CF Trival Valderas Alcoron | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Leganes | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Osasuna | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Villarreal | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Villarreal | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Celta | 0 - 0 | D |
| 11 Oct | H | Celta | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Valencia | 4 - 1 | W |
| 03 Apr 2026 | Vallecano | 1 - 0 | Elche |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Elche | 4 - 0 | Vallecano |
| 29 Apr 2023 | Elche | 4 - 0 | Vallecano |
| 03 Oct 2022 | Vallecano | 2 - 1 | Elche |
| 18 Feb 2022 | Elche | 2 - 1 | Vallecano |
| 17 Oct 2021 | Vallecano | 2 - 1 | Elche |
| 08 Mar 2020 | Vallecano | 2 - 3 | Elche |
| 05 Oct 2019 | Elche | 1 - 1 | Vallecano |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.52 | 22.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.86 | 53.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.99 | 50.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |