| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.3% | 67% | -9.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 82.9% | 92% | -9.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 76.3% | 87% | -10.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 48% | +7.8% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 54.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 54.3% | 23.8% | 21.9% |
| xgboost | 63.0% | 23.8% | 13.2% |
| logistic | 58.1% | 23.9% | 18.0% |
| Castellon | Sp Gijon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1608 | 1509 |
| Surface Elo | 1608 | 1509 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.30 | 1.90 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 1.10 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| Rest days | 7 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 25 Oct | H | CF La Nucia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Las Palmas | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Las Palmas | 3 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Andorra | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Andorra | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Albacete | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Cadiz | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Celta B | 3 - 2 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Oviedo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Andorra | 3 - 1 | W |
| 15 Mar 2026 | Sp Gijon | 4 - 1 | Castellon |
| 05 Oct 2025 | Castellon | 3 - 1 | Sp Gijon |
| 05 May 2025 | Castellon | 4 - 3 | Sp Gijon |
| 14 Oct 2024 | Sp Gijon | 2 - 1 | Castellon |
| 24 Jan 2021 | Castellon | 2 - 0 | Sp Gijon |
| 02 Nov 2020 | Sp Gijon | 1 - 0 | Castellon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 6.00 | 16.7% | 25 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 25 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 25 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 25 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 25 Oct 17:30 |