| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.7% | 74% | -19.8% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.2% | 88% | -10.0% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.4% | 85% | -14.1% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 71% | -8.9% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.5% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.4% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| xgboost | 58.6% | 24.8% | 16.6% |
| logistic | 59.2% | 23.6% | 17.2% |
| RB Leipzig | Hamburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1643 | 1478 |
| Surface Elo | 1643 | 1478 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 05 Sep | A | Werder Bremen | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 - 0 | W |
| 16 May | A | Freiburg | 1 - 4 | L |
| 09 May | H | St Pauli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 May | A | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 - 4 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Mainz | 0 - 5 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 May | A | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 May | H | Freiburg | 3 - 2 | W |
| 02 May | A | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Mar 2026 | Hamburg | 1 - 2 | RB Leipzig |
| 18 Oct 2025 | RB Leipzig | 2 - 1 | Hamburg |
| 27 Jan 2018 | RB Leipzig | 1 - 1 | Hamburg |
| 08 Sep 2017 | Hamburg | 0 - 2 | RB Leipzig |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 8.00 | 12.5% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 5.00 | 20.0% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.36 | 73.5% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.00 | 33.3% | 13 Sep 19:39 |