| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.1% | 65% | -9.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.8% | 88% | -6.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.2% | 83% | -8.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 58% | -0.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 48.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.7% | 26.1% | 22.3% |
| xgboost | 59.9% | 22.0% | 18.1% |
| logistic | 57.7% | 26.0% | 16.4% |
| Modena | Cesena | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1465 | 1401 |
| Surface Elo | 1465 | 1401 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Reggiana | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Carrarese | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Carrarese | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Verona | 3 - 2 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Verona | 3 - 2 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Avellino | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Oct | H | Avellino | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Benevento | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Benevento | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | A | Juve Stabia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 07 Mar 2026 | Modena | 0 - 0 | Cesena |
| 28 Nov 2025 | Cesena | 1 - 0 | Modena |
| 13 May 2025 | Modena | 0 - 1 | Cesena |
| 13 Sep 2024 | Cesena | 2 - 2 | Modena |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.60 | 17.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.20 | 23.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |