| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 68.2% | 76% | -8.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| logistic | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| Clement Tabur | Thomas Faurel | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1588 | 1502 |
| Surface Elo | 1588 | 1502 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Matteo Martineau | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Thomas Faurel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Matteo Martineau | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Murphy Cassone | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Jack Pinnington Jones | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Clement Tabur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Jack Pinnington Jones | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Mark Lajal | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Hugo Grenier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Clement Tabur | 2 - 0 | Thomas Faurel |
| 08 Jun 2026 | Clement Tabur | 2 - 0 | Thomas Faurel |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.25 | 30.8% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.31 | 76.3% | 30 Sep 06:15 |