| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.8% | 39% | +7.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.3% | 77% | -0.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.9% | 52% | +6.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 69% | -8.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.1% | 25.0% | 28.9% |
| xgboost | 37.5% | 22.1% | 40.4% |
| logistic | 39.2% | 30.0% | 30.8% |
| Elversberg | Augsburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1569 | 1632 |
| Surface Elo | 1569 | 1632 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Union Berlin | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Schalke 04 | 0 - 0 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Bayern München | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 - 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Bayern München | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bayern München | 2 - 2 | D |
| 02 Oct | H | Hertha Berlin | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Werder Bremen | 2 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.92 | 25.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.58 | 38.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.45 | 69.0% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.85 | 35.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |