| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.4% | 49% | +9.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| logistic | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Tommaso Compagnucci | Yanaki Milev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1472 | 1528 |
| Surface Elo | 1472 | 1528 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Pol Martin Tiffon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Yanaki Milev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | H | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Riccardo Carpano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Luca Wiedenmann | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Tommaso Compagnucci | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Kirill Kivattsev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Georgii Kravchenko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Tommaso Compagnucci | 2 - 1 | Yanaki Milev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.73 | 57.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |