| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.5% | 60% | -4.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.0% | 84% | -2.8% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.5% | 77% | -3.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 67% | -9.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 60.7% | 18.8% | 20.5% |
| xgboost | 53.5% | 24.6% | 21.9% |
| logistic | 57.1% | 25.4% | 17.6% |
| West Ham | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1702 | 1677 |
| Surface Elo | 1702 | 1677 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.91 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.73 | 1.91 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.09 | 0.91 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 5 W | 1 W · 4 D |
| 17 Oct | A | Swansea | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Swansea | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Lincoln | 6 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Lincoln | 6 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Braintree Town | 4 - 2 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Bolton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Bolton | 0 - 0 | D |
| 14 Oct | A | Norwich | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Norwich | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Boston Utd | 6 - 5 | W |
| 19 Apr 2025 | West Ham | 1 - 1 | Southampton |
| 26 Dec 2024 | Southampton | 0 - 1 | West Ham |
| 02 Apr 2023 | West Ham | 1 - 0 | Southampton |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Southampton | 1 - 1 | West Ham |
| 26 Dec 2021 | West Ham | 2 - 3 | Southampton |
| 11 Sep 2021 | Southampton | 0 - 0 | West Ham |
| 23 May 2021 | West Ham | 3 - 0 | Southampton |
| 29 Dec 2020 | Southampton | 0 - 0 | West Ham |
| 29 Feb 2020 | West Ham | 3 - 1 | Southampton |
| 14 Dec 2019 | Southampton | 0 - 1 | West Ham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.33 | 23.1% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.66 | 60.2% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.50 | 66.7% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.63 | 38.0% | 24 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.64 | 21.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.38 | 22.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.71 | 58.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.49 | 67.1% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |