| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 65.7% | 72% | -6.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 26.3% | 73.6% |
| logistic | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Luis "Guto" Miguel | Hugo Dellien | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1571 | 1721 |
| Surface Elo | 1571 | 1721 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Murkel Dellien | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Maximo Zeitune | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Murkel Dellien | 1 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Munk Mesa, Bernardo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Juan Manuel La Serna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Luis "Guto" Miguel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Hugo Dellien | 2 - 0 | Luis "Guto" Miguel |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.41 | 70.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 16 Oct 06:15 |