| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.2% | 49% | +4.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.7% | 75% | +5.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.3% | 65% | +7.4% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 64% | -7.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.3% | 24.0% | 18.7% |
| xgboost | 52.7% | 27.4% | 19.9% |
| logistic | 48.8% | 29.5% | 21.7% |
| Telstar | Den Haag | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1500 | 1335 |
| Surface Elo | 1500 | 1335 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.71 | 0.29 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.71 | 2.43 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | AZ Alkmaar | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | AZ Alkmaar | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Sep | A | Heerenveen | 0 - 0 | D |
| 09 Sep | A | Twente | 0 - 1 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Cambuur | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambuur | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambuur | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Twente | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | For Sittard | 2 - 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Feyenoord | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.88 | 34.7% | 11 Oct 13:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 11 Oct 13:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 11 Oct 13:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 11 Oct 13:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 11 Oct 13:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.32 | 30.1% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.84 | 26.0% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.13 | 46.9% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.63 | 61.4% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |